So there's a reckoning afoot for the Democrats, one that will realign their party. What we can expect is that the socialists will take over, and the old "centrists" will get the boot. And so to Slow Joe Biden: he's corrupt, he's an idiot, and every time he opens his mouth 80% of America winces. But he's not a socialist, so he will never be acceptable to the folks who will take over the Democratic Party.
The problem is that the Republic doesn't want socialism. Now we could all just sit back and watch Bernie do a repeat of George McGovern where he loses 45 States or so, but this begs the question - who will be the GOP replacement for Donald Trump in 2025?
Here's my preferred scenario, which will explain why Slow Joe is now my bestest most favorite Democrat:
1. The Democratic National Committee rigs the primaries (just like they did in 2016). Bernie gets screwed, and Slow Joe gets the nomination. The radicals in the Democratic Party melt down with rage.
2. Trump steamrolls Joe in the general election.
3. The radicals in the Democratic Party say "See? The problem was that the Party wasn't socialist enough!" They spend the next 4 years purging any remaining "centrists" and turning the Democratic Party into all socialism, all the time.
4. When the 2024 campaign heats up, the GOP mystery candidate (the "Not Donald Trump" guy) simply has to point out all the socialist crazy running the other party. Presto - the Democrats lose again because America doesn't want to be socialist.
It's important that it plays out like this. If Bernie wins the nomination then the Democrats will lose in a massive landslide this year. That will discredit the radicals trying to take over the Democratic Party, and give an opportunity to Democrats to bring back an establishment candidate who's a better liar, and who can convince enough voters that he's a safe choice. That might be enough to beat Not Donald Trump in 2024. Seeing what's going on in Virginia, it's pretty clear that the party needs to get burned to the waterline twice to let some actual sanity come back in.
So Joe's my guy, until July. Kind of a catchy slogan, right there.
Decent logic there, sir. I hope the DNC buys it hook, line, and sinker.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think it defies explanation that 'ol Joe is still in at this point. The dude is so far gone he can't rein in his impulses toward underage girls at this point while on camera. He never was all that bright, and is now missing at least a few of his marbles.
I would want Pence to run in 2024; but he might be too religious (!).
ReplyDeleteDo you see a third party coming out of this if Bernie is railroaded again? Yes, I know there are dozens now; but I think you understand what I'm getting at.
I also worry about the "Anti-fa" type radicals who have threatened Baltimore or Portland style riots.
Thanks for the post.
I don't think this takes into account changing demographics. In 2024 are there enough actual Americans vs. blow ins and those who want a socialist state for it to matter?
ReplyDeleteI've thought that also, Blue.
ReplyDeleteTo clarify my comment above. Vice President Pence is NOT too religious for me.
God bless America. Please.
The only contender I worry about is Bloomberg
ReplyDelete"First, a couple assumptions: Trump is going to win in November, either handily or in a blowout."
ReplyDeleteThe best part about a clear Trump win is finally shutting up all those NPV people once and for all.
Not to rain on anyone's parade here, and no offense to Borepatch, but I think he may have overlooked a pertinent fact in this prognostication; it isn't Joe Biden who is successfully making critical appointments to the DNC convention committees so far - that would appear to be Hillary Clinton.
ReplyDeleteWhile substituting Hillary for "Slow Joe" doesn't alter the suggested outcome of predictions 1 and 2 (other than wildly expanding the category "radicals" in #1), the effect of such a substitution on category #3 would likely extend out to the end of the entire third decade. That circumstance needs serious consideration now, with development of detailed plans (with variants) beginning now as well.
Said plans not only need to involve general options for the 2024 "not Donald Trump guy" candidate, but also his potential VP. Beginning in January, 2021, an early, and often revisited, priority of the second term of the Trump administration should be to develop and put into place legislative policies to advance non-NASA/.mil space-centric commercial activities for American companies and individuals. These plans and policies should be constructed to give Mike Pence's successor as VP a well thought out and legislatively solid platform from which to oversee America's transition into a space-based economy by the beginning of the fourth decade of this century. Pointing out all the socialist crazy running rampant in the Democratic party is likely to be an effective campaign stick in 2024, but having a by-then inevitable-seeming economic "carrot" to campaign on seems like a useful notion to spend some time on now too.
There's a lot more riding on this election cycle than most are prepared to even contemplate. We need to.
B, I don't see how Bloomberg wins. The radicals in his party don't see him as any different than Biden or Hillary. That battle has to play out, and he brings nothing to the table there.
ReplyDeleteIt’s still real early in process. Just ask President Jeb! The party does want a repeat of what happened last time so they will need to deal with the outsiders early, so Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang will be early victims. The guys nobody knows or who aren’t getting any traction , Bennet, Delany and Cadillac Deval: All gone by Super Tuesday or shortly there after. Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klouchar will fall victim to louder rumblings of the return of HRC. Michael Bloomberg will finally realize he would get more attention ( but not delegates) if he simply set a big pile of $ on fire in Times Square. By Mid April, both Ol’ Joe and Crazy Bernie will explode their campaigns in some spectacular manner leaving Warren and Mayor Pete to fight it out. On the third Ballot of the Convention HRC will “ reluctantly “ be nominated to be the next Hubert Humphrey.
ReplyDeleteBurned to the waterline twice....
ReplyDeleteThat would be a good start.....
My $0.02:
ReplyDeleteIf Shrillary runs, she gets shot in the face twenty times in a closed-door Dem party leadership meeting within an hour, and nobody saw nothin'.
The only people who hate Shrills worse than [R]s are the rest of the [D]s.
Just because she doesn't get why she lost in 2016 doesn't mean they don't get why she lost. They want to shed her and that whole misbegotten criminal clan like a case of scabies.
And while I like the long-game approach, Biden is superfluous.
The Dems are going to lose no matter who they run, and they're going to go farther left in 2025, because that's who their party is.
Four years from now, they've lost a yuuuuge number of older voters from Death, the union guys are even fewer than now, minorities will be more prosperous and conservative, and they're then only the party of the illegal immigrant lumpenproletariat.
Their nominee in 2025 is likely to be Nicolas Maduro, in exile from Venezuela, or possibly one of the Castro clan from Cuba, same reason.
Demography is destiny.
The Dems have all been socialists since 1933. They are just more open and honest about it now.
ReplyDeleteThe only difference between the old guard and the young radicals is that the radicals actually expect the party to live up to its promises. "What do we want? Total Communism! When do we want it? Now!"
I don't disagree with the logic, the Dems seem firmly committed to driving off the Lefty cliff, and there's no reason to stand in their way.
ReplyDeleteBut....At 0900 on Wednesday November 4 the search, recruitment and development process must begin for whomever runs in 2024. I doubt Pence is the answer (8 years of Trump may be a decent start, but it's going to require at least a few more 8-year blocks of that sort of approach to achieve a solid correction, and I don't see any more think-skinned Trump types on the horizon), and I also doubt the "standard-issue republicans" are up to the task; after 8 years of Trump there will be a lot of silent clamoring by establishment types for "a return to normal," leading to a bunch of JEB!s jockeying for the spot.
And, between here and there the need for finding and encouraging solid conservatives to run at all levels, from local to federal positions, will be critical; a lot of the leftist crap at the fed level can be prevented by establishing a non-leftist foundation lower down. I don't see any existing mechanism in place to do that, so where will it come from?
Only one of you got the point.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrats are basically a coalition of anti white male victim groups. What’s happening to the Democrats is basically diversity - real diversity, in all its vibrant splendour - in action. If you want to gaze into your future America... just look at the Democrats, and the realms where they rule: SanFran, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore....
And lest I sound conceited, it’s even worse up here in Canada.
Vote in the DEM primary in your state for the candidate that is in 3rd place in the DNC delegate count, we want this to be a dead heat when the DEM convention comes around (three or four rounds of delegate voting).
ReplyDeleteAlso no one has mentioned the obvious, lets change the 22nd amendment to mandate all senior elected govt officials can only serve 12 years.
Who decides the election results if no candidate picks up a clear majority of electoral votes? And will it be before or after the freshman representatives are sworn in?
ReplyDeleteFred, it's the House of Representatives who vote on it. IIRC, this has only happened once, with John Quincy Adams getting the nod over Andrew Jackson. I don't know if it's the Congress that is sitting when the election was held or the next one.
ReplyDeleteYou think if Gropin' Joe wins the nomination then the Democrats won't lose in a massive landslide this year?
ReplyDeleteIf you recall, Gropin' Joe held his hand up for Medicare For All along with everybody else last year. He also supports same-sex marriage; student loan forgiveness; increased taxation of the wealthy.
He'll support whatever he thinks is good for him. He may say he isn't a Socialist, but that won't stand up against what he's come out for this time.
Then there's his little problem with Ukraine.
edutcher, I agree 100%. But it looks like Trump is going to steamroll anyone in November. The question is: what about 2024?
ReplyDeleteIf the Bernie Bros think that the nomination got taken away from him AGAIN they might get so mad at the Democratic party that they go all-in on a communist in 2024. Then the next GOP guy wins then, too.
A guy can hope, can't he?