States voting for Romney (296 Electoral Votes): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (split: 1 EV), Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming
States voting for Obama (242 Electoral Votes): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Dist. of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (split: 3 EV), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin
My calculus is to look at the current state-by-state projections, and weaken Obama one level in each state: "Solid Obama" becomes "Strong Obama", "Strong Obama" becomes "Weak Obama", "Weak Obama" becomes "Weak Romney". Nothing will be shifting from the Romney column to the Obama column between now and November.
So there's the line up. It could be worse: the states I have listed as "Weak Obama" have 85 Electoral votes: Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin
Quite frankly, some of those very well might break for Romney if the current weak economy and ineffectual thrashing by the Obama campaign continues. The Romney camp has been impressively disciplined, and so it's far more likely that a damaging gaffe will come from the Democrats this season. If all of those 85 votes break for Romney, you have to go back to Reagan's victory in 1984 to find a worse drubbing.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but there is no upside for Obama at this point, only minimizing the loss. A 297 to 241 loss might preserve his chances to run again; a 382 to 156 loss will leave him washed up. But there really isn't any path to victory for him - after all, Mussolini could beat him this year.
So you have a specific prediction here, with a range of result. Note that I think that this is very likely a bad thing for the Republic, but facts are facts, and this is how I see them. Your mileage may vary, void where prohibited, do not remove tag under penalty of law.
LOL, you know this may come back to haunt you... But I 'hope' you're right!
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't put Indiana in the Romney column. Lake and Porter County in the North and Marion in the middle swing the state blue last time....and the machine is still very strong there.
ReplyDeleteThere are a LOT of urban folks in those 3 counties. They all voted (maybe more than once) in the last presidential election, and are likely to do so again.
NW Indiana isn't but a few minutes from Chicago, after all.
His campaign is about class warfare, distractions ("War on Women", "Ann Romney never worked a day in her life", gay marriage, etc). Quite frankly, that dog won't hunt.
ReplyDeleteOf course that dog won't hunt! It looked far too delicious for Our Nero Zero to pass it by.... ;-)
Considering the events over the past year or so, New Mexico going "blue", for me, does not compute. I'm not arguing the point, just that it elicits a tilted head quizzical dog look from me.
ReplyDeleteSoros and his lackey Dayton will insure that MN goes for the POS again. It'd be nice if Romneycare took the state, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
ReplyDeleteNot that Roneycare will be any better, he just isn't a D.
ReplyDeleteBeing stuck in Minnesota and knowing the history of voting here, the Metro Area is Blue and pretty much controls the politics in this state.
ReplyDeleteHas not voted for a Republican since the 70's and I expect Obama to take it again, much to my dismay..
I mean they elected Dayton for Governor!!
Not that I feel Romney is a whole lot different...But I despise Obama...
I remember reading an analysis the other day that speculated on the possibility of Obama making a comeback a la Grover Cleveland, who is the only President (so far) to serve non-consecutive terms. If Obama loses, it will be tempting for him, given his ego, to blame his loss on gay marriage, Trayvon, Bush, et. al., and try to come back in 2016. It's not as if he won't still have the MSM on his side.
ReplyDeleteThe rationale is that Obama is already visibly weakening, as the economy weakens. Signs of weakness are everywhere - softness in support from women, that sort of thing.
ReplyDeleteIn the polls, perhaps.
But there's only one poll that means something: the one on Nov 6th. All the rest don't matter a load of fetid dingo's kidneys. I'll believe that Barry Lackwit is beaten when the electoral totals come in, and it's no longer possible for them to cheat.
Yeah, I'd LOVE to be sitting with a drink in one hand and a cigar in the other here in Minnesota when it goes for Romney, but I just don't see it happening.
ReplyDeleteI just don't know if Romney is going to be able to beat the margin of cheat, either.
ReplyDeletePut another one in the MN not going red category. Not at the POTUS level anyway. Socialists continue to spring up like dandelions here in Minneapolis.
ReplyDeleteBeing a resident of one of the reddest of the red states (now how did the "anti-commies" become the "red" party?) if not THE reddest, the state capital - where the majority of the state population lives - is showing tendencies towards blue-dom. IIRC, a map showing trends by county shows this.
ReplyDeleteEver since that football team started doing well nationally, the California mentality seems to have begun moving in
Sigh ... running out of places to escape to.
Q
I appreciate the G2 from the theater, but Mussolini could beat Obama this year, even in Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteFunny enough, I made a very similar prediction a few months ago:
ReplyDeletehttp://anarchangel.blogspot.com/2012/02/so-9-months-out-my-prediction-for-2012.html
Basically, the only difference between your prediction and mine, is I think Obama will lose Iowa and New Mexico as well.
ReplyDeleteI have one more thing to add to this - NJ elected Chris Christie in preference to John Corzine; and I haven't heard enough rumbles to suggest the voters will drift back again. And Christie endorsed Romney...
ReplyDelete(Christie is not leaving NJ for DC this year. Ask me again when there is another open R presidential race).
Remember, Christie beat Corzine well before any of the financial shenanigans even happened, much less were heard about.
ReplyDeleteIt seems as though your map is looking pretty ambitious as of now. First off, New Hampshire is going to Obama. The entire grassroots movement for Obama in New England is focused on winning NH. If Gore won it in 2000, it's fair to think we'd be better off than we are today.
ReplyDeleteRomney is going to need a miracle, or more racists to pass 'voter fraud' filth in more battleground states. Nobody can honestly defend the voter fraud controversy going on right now, it's pure unadulterated racism. A Republican led commission investigated reports of voter fraud, and only found 340 confirmed instances in the last 10 years. Clearly we need sweeping legislation to destroy this before it gets out of hand.