Thinking about the election

The Obama campaign looks like the magic smoke is coming out, which is too bad because that will leave us with President Slick Willard.  That is likely to be a disaster, but that will be a post for another day.  For now, here are some musings about the next six months.

1. Romney will continue to ignore conservatives and the Tea Party.

There's little down side in this for him - most conservatives and Tea Party types hate Obama with the fire of a thousand suns, and would gladly crawl across broken glass to vote against him.  They're the opposite of the cheerleader dating the dreamy quarterback - they're the cheerleader going out with any old shmoe to get back at the quarterback.  I fear that this will not end well for them, but it is what it is.

2. This will not be a blow out election.

Don Surber is calling 40 states for Romney, which is courageous.  Not happening, though.  Obama is no Mondale, and the symbolism of the first black President will shore up the Democratic base and keep turnout high in African American communities.  That gives Obama a starting point of a solid 25% to build on - that's half way to victory.  For Romney to win in a landslide he will have to way over-perform with Moderates and Independents.  It's possible, but would take a compelling and bold message to do so - "compelling" and "bold" are not adjectives commonly used to describe Mitten's campaign.


3. Obama's fund raising problems will hurt the Democratic down-ticket races.

Remember the Billion Dollars that Obama's campaign used to boast that they'd raise.  How's that working out for them?  Not go well, actually.  Fund raising efforts are way behind projections.  Combined with a campaign staff sized suitably for the First Ego, the Obama burn rate is high enough that they have a shockingly low cash on hand balance - actually not much more than Romney.  But the First Ego will take his typical "me first" approach, and so promising but poor new Democratic candidates will go begging.  Obama has no coat tails, either political or financial.

4. Romney has no coat tails, either.

Sure, he's Mr. Establishment, but he doesn't have star power.  He also doesn't have a message beyond "vote for me, my name isn't Barack Obama".  As a result, it's hard to see him have the money or the draw to help the Republican down ticket races much.  It may not matter much as the Republican base will be energized to vote for "Mr. Not Barack Obama", but they'd vote for Mussolini instead of Obama. 



Net/net, Romney will owe the establishment, big time.  Congress won't owe (or fear) him much at all.  He'll be a weak President the day he takes office.

5. Most voters will make up their mind on the way into the voting booth.

Most people are entirely sensible, in that they''re not political junkies.  As such, they'll make up their mind in the last week of the campaign.  The Democrats will, as they like to do, try to run some sort of "October Surprise" around Halloween, although since Romney is squeaky clean, it's hard to see what that might be.  But polls before mid-October will be essentially only of interest to the political equivalent of sabremetricians.

6. The Media will shamelessly (and hysterically) shill for Obama.  Won't matter.

The only people who still trust the media are Obama's base anyway.  So the MSM can dial the Obamessiah Love up to 11, and the Romney 2 minutes of hate up to 13, and it won't move the needle.  The old days of the media being worth 5-15 points are gone, and not coming back.  It's arguable, in fact, that the one sided media love fest actually produces negative results for Democrats, as the whole "Ann Romney never worked a day in her life" kerfuffle suggests.  Sure, the comment was idiotic.  What's interesting is why a Democrat thought she could get away with saying it.  MSM FTW!

7. A Romney Administration will be a disaster for America, for freedom, and for the Republican Party.

There, I said it.  That's a post for another day, but all the cheerleaders thinking that dating the President of the Chess Club will "show" that dumb old quarterback need to think how that particular date is likely to end up, and whether they want to end up married to this particular nerd.  More on this in a future post.