You have no chance to survive. Make your time.

The Czar of Muscovy brings some good points about the election (although I'd like him to show his work a bit more; then again, I'm an amateur quant).  Alas, I'm not sure that I quite agree with his conclusions.  First, to the easy bit:

1. He is entirely correct that Romney would make a much better (not to mention less dangerous) POTUS than Obama II.

2. He is entirely correct that Romney would likely make a better POTUS than either Santorum or Gingrich, although they would either of them be an upgrade from Obama II.

3. He is correct that a Republican Congress will be hard pressed to restrain Obama II, and that Congress may even flip back Democratic in 2014.

Here's the problem: it's not Obama, it's Obama's world view.  He's just particularly ruthless in pushing it aggressively.  Obama isn't alone: he has the entire Intelligentsia on his side, the MSM, the European Elites, the international Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs).  They're all in the same tribe, which believes that things should be run by them, with a strong, interventionist government in charge (run by them, 'natch), and with the peons givering deference where it's due (to them, 'natch).

Romney's in that tribe.  So's Newt, and probably Santorum.  And 60% of the Republican Party.  Only Ron Paul explicitly rejects that world view.

Essentially, it's the Blue State model - although we need to recognize that all of Europe is deeper Blue than even Massachusetts.  Here's the crisis: the Blue model is collapsing.

It's falling apart all over the world as the State finds that it's spent too much on the wrong things, and that buying off the proles to keep them in line has gone as far as it can.  There has been massive deficit spending for a long time, and now whole chunks of the Progressive Edifice are simply starting to fall off - indeed, Greece will leave the Eurozone in a matter of months, declare a massive default on their government bonds (likely losing 80% of their nominal value), and return to the Drachma.

Of course, then there will be no more deficit spending (who on earth would buy their bonds?) and the Blue Paradigm will join the Aeropagus as obscure Greek history trivia.  Greece, of course, will be joined by others in Europe, and the United States.  What's the over/under on when Illinois defaults on their State bonds?  California?

The problem with the GOP is that they have been junior members of the Blue tribe for the past quarter century.  The crises of the next four years are crises of this Blue model:

• Social spending (entitlements) approaching 80% of government revenue.
• Trillion dollar a year deficits as far as the eye can see.
• Slow business investment due to massive uncertainties (tax policy and the strength of the financial markets will play a major role here).

Most importantly, you will have the Paul Krugmans of the world telling us that the obvious answer is more of what got us to this point, only bigger.  You'll have an Intelligentsia that, while likely less wedded to the success of Obama in 2013 (hey, they got him re-elected, right?) won't be ready to declare the defeat of their Statist world view.

So the question is, who is the best man for the job of POTUS, if our long term goals are (a) change this Blue world view to something sane) and then (b) fix entitlements before we join Greece?

I think that the answer is that we want Barack Obama to be in the Oval Office as the Blue Model comes crashing down.

You see, Romney will roll up his sleeves and try to fix things, but his fixes are likely to be at least a little sane, and so he'll get savaged by the Intelligentsia saying Paul Krugman sez we need a 3 Trillion dollar stimulus!!eleventy!

And so when the bottom inevitably falls out, Romney will take the blame, not Obama.  And we'll go back for another round of Blue Model on steroids, because nobody will want to trim Social Security and everyone will be invested in stupid Romney screwed everything up.

If the O-Man is there another 4, they won't have this - particularly if he rules via regulation, not legislation (as is entirely likely).

And so, we have no chance to survive, until the Left decides that maybe this isn't such a good idea.  If we're lucky, they'll figure this out as Europe and a couple States crater but the rest stagger on.

My view is that we are better off (long term) taking the massive hit that will be another Obama term, getting it over with, and then picking up the pieces of the collapsed Blue (Democrat and GOP) statist model.  We need to make our time, or perhaps Zig for Great Justice.



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