The National Oceaniac and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is chartered by the Fed.Gov to forecast hurricanes. Their 2010 hurricane season prediction is due out next week.Unfortunately, they're not very accurate, having missed three of the last four seasons. Others think that a .250 batting average is pretty low for climate scientists, and think that they can do better. This is “Dr. James Hansimian”, who also predicts hurricane frequency.
I think that the reply from NOAA was something along the lines of "If you want Rocket Scientists, you should go try NASA", or something.Via press release: Washington, DC: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s track record in predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is so abysmal that a trained chimp could do better, says The National Center for Public Policy Research, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The group is putting this claim to the test, issuing a 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast today determined by a chimpanzee, “Dr. James Hansimian.”
And unlike the labcoats at NOAA, the chimp works for peanuts (well, bananas).
Nice to see you got dressed up in your Sunday best for this blog photo opportunity Borepatch lol....
ReplyDeleteStan, that can't be me. Too much hair ...
ReplyDeleteI was going to say that! ;)
ReplyDeleteSeriously, for the past several years each year NOAA predicts a "more severe than normal" hurricane season. They were right in 2005 (by severity, not frequency), and 2008. They were wrong in 2009 as it was a completely slack year for hurricanes. I don't know about a chimp, but I could probably do as well with a coin. Or a random number generator.
Awful handsome and articulate for a climate scientist!
ReplyDeleteI've seen quite a few professionals look that way!
ReplyDeleteThose guys are a running joke...
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine a better job than to come out and forecast the number of storms in a hurricane season? I mean, no matter how wrong they are, no one ever challenges them. No one ever gets fired. No one ever says, "you forecast a really active season last year, too, and nothing happened".
And they get paid for it! So it's just as productive and useful to the economy as blogging, only getting paid real money.
Where can I sign up?