Action, Reaction (part 2)

No trend continues for ever. The Obama Administration's honeymoon period won't, either. How political trends end, and why, is something that very few people predict well.

However, the Administration's new sweeping healthcare plan is barely launched, and is already in big trouble. Megan McArdle on why:

What's happening now is precisely the kind of political gridlock I--and a lot of libertarians and conservatives--predict when it comes time to actually cut costs in healthcare. Why can't we tax employer health benefits? Liberal answer: because Ben Nelson is a big fat jerk. My answer: because then the awesome health care package that Democrats want to run on in 2010 would come packaged with a non-awesome hefty decline in everyone's weekly paycheck. The number of people who would get a benefit out of the program would be much smaller than the number of people who would pay a noticeable cost.

Must read stuff, especially for liberals who think that this is 1932 all over again, and that Obama is FDR.