Thursday, October 4, 2012

Obama's Dilemma

The post debate go-to analysis is unsurprisingly found at your Gormogons.  I didn't watch, and so will rely on the Czar's writeup as being definitive.  If you haven't read it, go and look at it now.

The Press is (surprisingly to me) seemingly unanimous that Obama's performance in the debate was terrible, and people are scratching their heads as to why.  The reason is that Obama is in a trap of his own making.  Consider:

The Obama campaign up until this point has focused on the textbook Alinsky personalize-and-freeze strategy.  Romney gave some woman cancer.  Romney ties dogs to car roofs.  Romney is coming for your ladyparts.  This has all been 100% focused on the Democratic base, to keep them fired up.  If the base does not turn out for Obama in numbers similar to 2008, he is in very deep trouble indeed.  The polls, as a matter of fact, all use a Democratic turnout similar to 2008 in their models, and the polls are reporting that the race is very close.  If Obama doesn't fire up his base, he's toast.  Thus, the campaign to date.

But the dilemma is that it was independents (and we must admit some "Obama Republicans") who gave Obama his margin of victory in 2008.  Whether it was SWPLs making themselves feel good voting for the Black Guy or because they listened to his soaring Home and Change rhetoric rather than the Jeremiah Wright class war fire and brimstone, if Obama doesn't get those people turning out in similar numbers, he's in deep trouble.

Remember, the Republicans are fired up this year (unlike 2008), and so Obama's 52% victory starts likely at even - assuming he keeps both his base and the independents.

And there's the dilemma.  What fires up the base is the class war fire and brimstone.  What will pull in the independents is the persona he projected in 2008 - post-racial, bipartisan, and agent of competence and change.

Obama's choice?  Pick one of those.

Last night, he appears to have picked the echo of his 2008 persona, trying to conjure the remnants of the bipartisan figure that would pull in the independents.  It appears (remember, I didn't watch the debate) that Romney mopped the floor with him on precisely this point, because Romney's record in Massachusetts is demonstrably bipartisan.  Indeed, Obama's reported lack of energy is likely a combination of (a) a strategy to avoid going all fire and brimstone and (b) a realization that he was playing a very weak hand.  Post debate polls seem to be showing independents breaking 2:1 for Romney.

Further evidence that he was not playing to his base is the astonished reaction by the Press, who quite frankly are his base this year.  You can't listen to Chris Matthews without thinking that they were hoping for the fire and brimstone from their guy.  Nobody every overestimated Matthews' intelligence.

Obama knew better, but he's trapped.  Romney is plenty competent enough to let Obama get away with the HopenChange play, and plenty competent enough to keep from scaring the SWPLs.  I've been saying repeatedly that Romney will win, and win big - this is probably the point in the campaign where the polls begin breaking decisively for Romney, and will not correct towards Obama.  The independents who have been putting off making their choice will begin to decide now, and they will break strongly for Romney.  If Obama dials up the class warfare to energize his increasingly demoralized base, he will simultaneously energize the Republican base to turn out and push independents more strongly to Romney.

Quite frankly, Obama has dropped below the power curve.  I've been saying for a year or so that Mussolini could beat him this year, and it's playing out like a Kabuki dance.  Scripted.  The interesting question is how Obama will position himself for life after 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.  I'm not sure on that, but suspect that some weirdness that we are likely to see in the next month will be driven by that.

9 comments:

drjim said...

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if 0Bama was "medicated" somewhat to keep him from popping his cork.

Ajdshootist said...

Over here in the UK most of the Papers used to be pro BHO but most now say he lost to Romney big time.

Rev. Paul said...

In Obama's opening remarks, he told his spouse that "next year, we won't be celebrating our anniversary in front of 40 million people."

Durned tootin' ... they'll be all alone in Rezko mansion-land.

Anonymous said...

Lowering Expectations. It is standard practice in serial debating tactics.

drjim said...

He should be in the Graybar Hotel, and not his mansion!

TJP said...

Although this sort of behavior is frowned upon, it is enlightening to talk to people after they have voted and see what is on their minds. The largest voting segment is the Indifferent.

Party affiliation or lack thereof is no indication of how informed a voter might be. Voting is a snap decision. A good chunk of voters don't care--they vote for the most recognizable candidate--or they have no idea who any of them are and just pick the candidate at the top of the column.

Six said...

I watched the debate, expecting little from Romney. I was badly surprised and I expect Obama and his handlers were as well. Mitt sounded positively Gipperish. Obama was clearly out of his depth and it showed. His discomfort in non scripted events was glaring. Romney did what he needed to. He looked and sounded Presidential and had every fact on the tip of his tongue. He was fiery without looking like he was taking cheap shots but still got in a zinger that has to have left a mark. The "You only pick the losers" quip made me laugh out loud.
Mitt showed me something last night.

wolfwalker said...

"The reason is that Obama is in a trap of his own making. "

I think you're over-analyzing this, Borepatch. Your analysis only makes sense if the current White House resident is thinking/planning that far ahead. I don't accept that assumption. There's a reason I call him Barry Lackwit, and it ain't just my nasty streak coming through. As Richard was the Lion-heart, and his brother John was Lack-land after their best-known characteristics, so Barry is the Lack-wit for his most salient trait. I genuinely don't think he's that smart. He's never had to be. All his life, other people have handed him things while telling him he earned them. He's never failed at anything important, never faced real adversity, never had to pick himself out of the mud and stagger on as best he could. With that kind of background, any real intellect he ever had has rotted away, and all that's left is one of the most frighteningly narcissistic numbwits ever to appear on the American political scene.

I don't think he even understood the meaning of the office he now occupies: the responsibility and the unrelenting pressure to get it right, because lives depend on you. After almost four years of increasing failure and steadily decreasing ability (or will) of others to continue shielding him, I begin to wonder whether he really wants to be re-elected. To some extent he seems to just be going through the motions, and the only reason his poll numbers haven't collapsed is the support he's getting from the mainstream media.

drjim said...

Pretty good analysis, wolfwalker.

Perhaps he expected all his "Czars" and "advisers" to run things while he just basked in the glory of being "The Smartest President EVAH.

The major problem with that is 99% of the "czars" and "advisers" have ZERO experience in the real world, just like their master.

And now it's all coming apart at the seams.